By Roberto Barreto
Claudia Sheinbaum, of the left-wing National Regeneration Movement party (Brunette), comfortably won, on Sunday, June 2, the presidential elections in Mexico by obtaining 60% of the votes and became the first woman to govern her country in history.
She will officially take office on October 1but from now on they have been analyzing the challenges that will have to be faced when replacing Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), a confrontational president, but who continues to enjoy a lot of popularity.
Among the challenges that Sheinbaum has is generating good Government-to-Government relations with other nations, which has not happened between Peru and Mexico in recent months after the disagreements between Boluarte and AMLO, and has caused uncertainty regarding commercial relations. .
For example, López Obrador did not want to hand over the pro tempore presidency of the Pacific Alliance to Boluarte last year because he considered that she became a usurper in Peru after replacing Pedro Castillo in office.
Likewise, when the Congress Peruvian declared AMLO persona non grata after his rudeness, he ironically said that “there are a lot of people in Peru for so little government.”
For her part, Dina Boluarte was not far behind and answered that there is “a lot of ignorance for so much intelligence of the Mexican people.”
All of this has generated anxiety in different areas, including economic ones.
Support. Elected president of Mexico obtained more than 35 million votes. Photo: diffusion
Two analysts and a report from ADEX detail the scenario that could come in Peru-Mexico relations with the change of direction of the North American nation.
Better ways, but still distant
Alonso Cárdenas, professor of Political Science at the Antonio Ruiz Montoya University, comments that Sheinbaum conducts himself with greater diplomacy compared to AMLO; However, Sheinbaum, from AMLO’s party, would maintain a distant relationship with Boluarte.
“Let us not forget that Sheinbaum is a human rights activist. Her career has been linked to the defense and promotion of these. And precisely that is the main Achilles heel of President Dina Boluarte,” she stated.
For his part, internationalist Farid Kahhat agrees with this premise and adds that he does not see Sheinbaum persecuting Boluarte or testifying against him, but he could join a possible collective international censure.
“I would not expect Sheinbaum to do something similar (to what AMLO did), but if the invocation of the Democratic Charter In the case of Peru (due to complaints of violation of human rights), I would probably expect Mexico to join the countries that are in favor of this invocation, but it would be a collective action, not an individual confrontation,” explains Farid Kahhat.
Sheinbaum could come to APEC
On the other hand, regarding Sheinbaum’s attendance at APEC, which this year will be held in Peru, Kahhat mentions that, despite the discrepancies, the Mexican president-elect could come to our country.
“I wouldn’t expect her to be as reluctant in general to travel to international events as she was. Lopez Obrador which virtually never did. And it is not clear to me that she is coming, but Mexico is going to send a delegation,” he asserts.
While Cárdenas considers that Sheinbaum will evaluate together with his advisors until the last moment whether the president will come, since “within the scale of priorities of Mexican foreign policy, Peru does not appear in the first places.”
What we may not see, as the interviewees explain, are snubs on the part of Sheinbaum, like those made by AMLO, who in November of last year told the press that, at the 2023 APEC meeting, he preferred not to take a photo with Boluarte Zegarra, much less will he look for her for that.
Kahhat adds that The Mexican Government program is large, but it has very few foreign policy pages; and when he talks about trade, he focuses primarily on the treaties he has in North America. “He does not talk about the Pacific Alliance, we are not a priority. That is not going to change with the president,” she details.
In that sense, the economy would not be affected, but above all because Peru is not a priority for Mexico.
Visa procedures would continue
The requirement for Peruvians to apply for a visa in order to enter Mexico would continue, according to Cárdenas. Likewise, Kahhat states that for Mexico there is a much more important reason to maintain that position than just the problem between rulers.
“The AMLO Government is largely blamed for using the visas as revenge. Let us remember that this has to do with the relationship between Mexico and the United States because this is an election year, in which the issue of migration is important especially for Republicans and an article said that between 2021 and 2023 it had stopped to 144,000 Peruvians trying to cross the border between Mexico and the United States,” he indicates.
It is important to mention that since May 6 of this year, Peruvians can only enter Mexico with a visa; while Mexicans do not require the document to come to our country, since the Government of our country decided to revoke that measure to prioritize tourism and fulfill its commitment “to the principles of the Pacific Alliance.”
Trade relations are expected to improve
In a bulletin from ADEX, a union that brings together Peruvian foreign trade businessmen, the central manager of the institution, Diego Llosa Velásquez, trusts that, After the change of helm in Mexico, “a new chapter will open in diplomatic and economic-commercial relations between both nations”affected by the conflict between governments.
However, we should not forget what the other two analysts said: that although Sheinbaum is a diplomat, she is still from AMLO’s party, so new friction could again generate a setback in trade relations.
It is worth saying that a report made by the aforementioned union (ADEX) shows that, between January and April of this year, there was a contraction in national exports to Mexico by 12.3%, compared to the same period in 2023.
This year, exports totaled US$294 million 192,000 in those 4 months; while last year it had reached US$335 million 521,000.
Likewise, these figures are the worst in the last five years (January-April). The most affected sectors were mining, agribusiness and chemicals, but sectors such as textiles, clothing, metalworking, mining non-metallic and wood.
Boluarte greeted Sheinbaum’s victory
The Government of Dina Boluarte welcomed through the Foreign Ministry the triumph of Claudia Sheinbaum on Sunday in the Mexican presidential elections.
“Peru congratulates Claudia Sheinbaum for her victory in the general elections of the United Mexican States. By wishing him success during his administration, we reaffirm our commitment to strengthening the bilateral relationship within the framework of dialogue, cooperation and mutual respect,” the greeting reads. Will it be a new beginning?
Reactions
Alonso Cárdenas, university professor at UARM
“I see a continuity between the politics of López Obrador and that of Claudia Sheinbaum. What could vary a little are the shapes. Claudia Sheinbaum has a less confrontational style than AMLO.”
Farid Kahhat, International analyst
“I wouldn’t expect Sheinbaum to be as generally reluctant to travel to international events as AMLO was. And it is not clear to me that she will come (to APEC), but Mexico is going to send a delegation.”
