President Bola Tinubu recently declared that Nigeria’s security and economy are improving under his administration, a bold statement that has sparked widespread discussion across the nation. Since taking office in May 2023, Tinubu’s government has rolled out ambitious reforms aimed at tackling Nigeria’s longstanding challenges, from rampant insecurity to economic instability. But how much progress has been made? This in-depth analysis examines the data, public sentiment, and ongoing hurdles to assess the validity of the president’s claim, offering a nuanced look at Nigeria’s trajectory under his watch.
Nigeria’s security landscape has been a complex battleground for years, marked by insurgency in the North-East (Boko Haram and ISWAP), banditry in the North-West, and communal clashes in the Middle Belt. Tinubu’s administration has prioritized security, allocating significant funds to modernize the military and police while promoting community-based initiatives to curb violence. According to reports from the Nigerian Ministry of Defence, over ₦2 trillion was budgeted for security in 2024, with investments in drones, surveillance technology, and troop training. Operations in the North-West, such as Operation Hadin Kai, have reportedly disrupted bandit networks, leading to a 15% reduction in reported kidnappings in states like Zamfara and Kaduna compared to 2022, based on data from security think tanks.
Notable successes include the neutralization of high-profile bandit leaders and the rescue of hostages in Sokoto and Kebbi states in late 2024. The administration’s push for state policing and community vigilante groups has also gained traction, with local governments in the North reporting better coordination with federal forces. On platforms like X, some Nigerians have praised these efforts, with users highlighting reduced travel risks on major highways like the Abuja-Kaduna road, once a notorious kidnapping hotspot.
However, the security situation remains far from resolved. Recent attacks in Borno and Yobe, including a January 2025 bombing attributed to ISWAP, underscore the resilience of insurgent groups. Rural communities in the North-West continue to face cattle rustling and village raids, with over 1,200 deaths reported in 2024 from banditry alone, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ Nigeria Security.
Tinubu’s claim of improvement holds some truth, as targeted operations have yielded results, but the persistence of violence in certain regions suggests that Nigeria’s security challenges are far from over. The administration’s focus on technology and local collaboration is promising, but scaling these efforts to cover Nigeria’s vast terrain will require sustained investment and coordination.
On the economic front, Tinubu’s policies have been both transformative and controversial. His decision to remove fuel subsidies in June 2023 and float the naira sent shockwaves through the economy, leading to immediate spikes in fuel prices (from ₦200 to over ₦600 per liter) and inflation, which hit a peak of 34.2% in July 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The naira’s value plummeted to ₦1,600 per dollar by late 2024, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis for millions of Nigerians. Food prices soared, with a bag of rice rising from ₦25,000 in 2022 to over ₦80,000 in some markets by early 2025.
These reforms, though painful, were designed to address structural issues like Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and a bloated subsidy system that cost the government $10 billion annually. The naira’s float aimed to attract foreign investment and stabilize the currency market. By May 2025, there are signs of progress: the naira has appreciated slightly to around ₦1,500 per dollar, and the Central Bank of Nigeria reports increased foreign exchange liquidity. The IMF projects Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.2% for 2025, up from 2.9% in 2023, driven by growth in agriculture and tech sectors. Tinubu’s infrastructure push, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and railway expansions, has also created jobs, with over 50,000 employed in construction projects in 2024, per government estimates.
The administration’s local government autonomy policy, signed into law in 2024, is another long-term bet. By granting fiscal independence to local councils, Tinubu aims to boost grassroots development, with early pilots in states like Ekiti showing increased funding for schools and clinics.
Yet, the short-term pain is undeniable. Unemployment remains high at 33%, and small businesses, particularly in Lagos and Abuja, have struggled with rising operational costs. X posts capture this discontent, with hashtags like #TinubuEconomy trending alongside complaints about unaffordable food and fuel.
Tinubu’s economic reforms are showing early signs of stabilizing Nigeria’s fiscal outlook, but the benefits are yet to trickle down to the average citizen. The next few years will be critical in determining whether these policies can deliver sustainable growth or deepen public discontent.
Public reaction to Tinubu’s claim is polarized, reflecting Nigeria’s complex socio-political landscape. Supporters, particularly in the South-West, credit his experience as a former Lagos governor for his bold reforms, arguing that decades of mismanagement cannot be undone overnight. Critics, however, point to the immediate hardships and question the pace of progress. X serves as a microcosm of this divide, with trending discussions oscillating between cautious optimism and outright skepticism.
Looking ahead, Tinubu’s administration faces a delicate balancing act. On security, expanding community-based initiatives and leveraging technology could build on current gains, but addressing root causes like poverty and youth unemployment is crucial. Economically, sustaining naira stabilization and diversifying revenue beyond oil—through agriculture and tech—will be key to easing public hardship. The 2025 budget, which emphasizes infrastructure and social welfare, could provide relief if implemented effectively.
President Tinubu’s assertion that security and the economy are improving is grounded in measurable progress: reduced kidnappings, military modernization, slight naira appreciation, and GDP growth projections. However, persistent insecurity in rural areas and the economic strain felt by ordinary Nigerians paint a more complex picture. While the administration’s reforms signal a commitment to long-term stability, the immediate challenges of violence and inflation continue to test public patience. As Nigeria navigates this critical juncture, the success of Tinubu’s policies will depend on their ability to translate into tangible improvements for all Nigerians, from urban centers to remote villages.
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