by The United States conditioned its military aid in offensive ammunition to Israel on do not undertake a “major military operation” in the densely populated city of Rafah, south of Gaza. Where there are now 1.2 million Palestinian refugees from other areas of the enclave, fleeing the war.
This is not the first time that the United States has threatened or carried out restrictions on its military shipments to Israel. Almost from the beginning of the relationship between both nations there were tugs of war, in the face of Israeli attitudes that the Americans interpreted as inflexibility, the consequences were restrictions on military material.
In the Suez Canal crisis in 1956hePresident Eisenhower threatened to sanction Israel, Years later, a president told his secretary of state: “The United States will not isolate itself from the rest of the world to support Israeli intransigence.” He was Gerald Ford to Henry Kissinger when in March 1975 the United States was trying to mediate a Sinai withdrawal agreement between Israel and Egypt, after the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Endless discussions and Israeli delays led the Ford Administration to delay the supply of F-15 aircraft.
There was also incidents in the 80s and even in the ongoing war. The analyst Alon Pinkas He pointed out in the newspaper Haaretz that in all cases they were specific and temporary delays that happened in silence and whose intention was to send a message without damaging the relationship.
What is different about the current crisis is that it has been made public
Held shipping includes 1,800 907 kilo bombs, 1,700 226 kilo bombs and possibly JDAM kitsthe ammunition that converts “dumb” bombsthose that cause indiscriminate damage, in precision guided bombs. However, it must be remembered that US President Joe Biden said in the same interview on CNN in which he announced that he was pausing this shipment, that no defensive aid to Israel was being stopped. Additionally, in April Congress approved Biden’s request for an emergency arms deal worth $14 billion for Israeland last week authorized a shipment of ammunition worth $827 million.
Analysts point out that Biden’s brake is due to Netanyahu’s attitude, who ignores and ignores his ally’s requests and does not present any plan for Gaza the day after. This Friday, the United States Government affirmed that it is possible that the Israeli Army has used weapons provided by Washington in Gaza in a manner “incompatible” with International Humanitarian Law in the seven months that the Israeli military operation in the Strip has been underway. . The State Department admitted in a report that “it is reasonable to assess that Israeli security forces have used defense articles covered by ‘NSM-20’ since October 7 in cases incompatible with their obligations under International Humanitarian Law or with established best practices to mitigate harm to civilians.
A few days before Israeli Independence Day, Netanyahu said: “During the War of Independence, 76 years ago, we were few against many. We had no weapons, there was an arms embargo on Israel, but with the strength of soul, bravery and unity within us, we won. Today we are much stronger. We are determined and united to defeat our enemy and those who seek to destroy us. If we have to be alone, we will be”, in reference to the pause in the shipment of American ammunition.
Along the same lines, the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrichtweeted: “When the State of Israel was established, we were forced to declare it despite the strong opposition of Marshall, the Secretary of State of the Truman Administration. We also had to face a war with an embargo implemented by the United States.” .
“One more time, today we will achieve a complete victory in this war despite President Biden’s reaction and arms embargo. We simply have no choice, as this war is existential and anything less than a complete victory will jeopardize the existence of the Jewish State. danger,” Smotrich continued.
Really existential danger?
The mandatory military entry into Rafah is something highly discussed in Israel. If Netanyahu harbors a dilemma in this regard, it will be due to American and international pressure against it and that of the extreme right of his government coalition that is pressing for it to be carried out. But there are also the military who indicate that it is the appropriate step, to eliminate the remaining Hamas battalions and try to free the hostages, and the military who say that these battalions are not relevant and that the cost of that operation It will be greater than the benefits, since it is not a strategic city.
The Israeli Army ordered the evacuation of the civilian population from more areas of eastern Rafah this Saturday, six days after starting the military operation in that city in the south of the Gaza Strip, as well as from several points in the north of the enclave, where alleges that Hamas is rebuilding its capabilities. The evacuation order affects the Rafah and Shabura camps, as well as the Adari and Jeneina neighborhoods; who have been asked to go to the “humanitarian area” of Al Mawasi, a coastal area already saturated with displaced people in makeshift tents, without running water or sanitation.
“Israel cannot play without the US”
“I’m also stuck with this dilemma,” says Alberto Spektorowski, a political science professor at Tel Aviv University. “Because I see that the military experts themselves are divided.”
Spektorowski believes that if Israel enters the southern city of Gaza with everything, “Netanyahu will remain in power, managing this endless war, and Israel will remain more isolated than Russia. Without American support. I am a Bengurionist in this sense, I think that Israel cannot play without the US”.
Netanyahu’s displeasure with Biden may be due, according to the academic, to the Israeli prime minister’s desire for a change of government in his ally.
Spektorowski believes that the lack of design of a plan for Gaza the day after by the Israeli president is due to the fact that Netanyahu’s government prefers a weakened Hamas in the strip, but Hamas and not another organization.
For this reason, the expert is inclined to think that the Israeli military entry into Rafah will remain in the stammer in which it is at the moment.
“Siwnar knows they are playing,” the professor says, referring to Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahiya Sinwar. “They are making demonstrations, as if to pressure for negotiation, but it doesn’t seem to me that Sinwar is being impressed. He knows that Israel has to surrender. And he is calm there, waiting.”
This expert, and others, point out that this war could be long. This vagueness put into figures, five years, ten years, takes on an unbearable dimension for the families of the hostages held captive in Gaza, not to mention the Gazans under the Israeli bombs. “And that extension in time is good for Sinwar and good for Netanyahu”says Spektorowski.
Netanyahu does not want international forces in Gaza because that would serve Hamas, “which can continue being what it is because international forces would not censure it,” says the academic. “The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) does not want to be in Gaza and if it were, it would benefit Hamas, which could be ‘the irresponsible one’ and the one who would take the blame for things not working would be the PNA”
And, thus, the evil pact is created, between the Israeli leadership and that of the strip, with a return to the panorama of October 6, describes Spektorowski. “More of the same, and for many years”laments the teacher.
