The global Catholic community — and the world — is eagerly watching to see who will become the next pope. As of late April 2025, Polymarket, a popular crypto-based prediction market, has seen a surge of interest in this question, with over $6 million wagered. A recent viral fake Vatican announcement about excommunicating gamblers ironically boosted attention to the event even further.
Top Candidates According to Polymarket
Two candidates currently lead the predictions:
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Cardinal Pietro Parolin: The Vatican’s Secretary of State and a key figure in Church diplomacy, Parolin is seen as a moderate choice. He currently holds about a 34% chance of being elected pope.
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Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: Hailing from the Philippines, Tagle is the Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization and a significant voice for the global South. He trails closely behind Parolin with a 32% chance.
Other names being discussed include Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Cardinal Péter Erdő, and Cardinal Peter Turkson, although their chances are much slimmer according to current market data.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
While prediction markets can offer fascinating insights into public sentiment, history reminds us that papal elections often defy expectations. When Pope Francis was elected in 2013, he was not a frontrunner in the betting markets.
The conclave remains a deeply spiritual and secretive process, and while markets like Polymarket make it possible to speculate, the final decision rests entirely with the College of Cardinals — guided, as Catholics believe, by divine intervention.
Final Thoughts
As the world awaits the announcement of the next pope, speculation will continue to swirl. Whether prediction markets like Polymarket will get it right this time remains to be seen. For now, it provides an intriguing glimpse into how the world views the future of the Catholic Church.